Miksi yliluonnolliset selitykset ovat epätodennäköisiä?

Excerpt fom Lewis Wolperts "Six impossible things before breakfast" p. 85:
"Evidence is itself not easy to evaluate, and the many books and papers written on intelligence, the evaluation of evidence, and rationality, still leave it resistant to simple definition. Explaining why a particular conclusion was drawn from a mass of evidence can be very difficult. The calculation of probability of evidence being reliable is no trivial matter; statisticians spend their lives on such problems.

Teorioiden monimutkaisuus, evidenssi ja todennäköisyys minimikuvausmenetelmän avulla

See also and add to article:

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell%27s_teapot
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_model_comparison
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_selection
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_interpretations
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_probability
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_Razor
  • In the philosophy of religion, Occam's razor is sometimes applied to the existence of God; if the concept of God does not help to explain the universe, it is argued, God is irrelevant and should be cut away (Schmitt 2005). It is argued to imply that, in the absence of compelling reasons to believe in God, disbelief should be preferred.
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_description_length
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creation-evolution_controversy

	Name	Size	Creator	Date	Comment
	mdl-and-god.ppt	4,86 Mb	Robert Brotherus	touko 11, 2008